NPB Pitcher Rankings

Rank		Player
1 (-)		Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22
2 (+1)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21
3 (-1)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25
4 (+1)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25
5 (+1)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28
6 (-2)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25
7 (+1)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25
8 (-1)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23
9 (+1)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28
10 (+4)		Takahisa Hayakawa Rakuten Age 25
11 (-2)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26
12 (+1)		Ryosuke Ohtsu SoftBank Age 25
13 (+4)		Foster Griffin Yomiuri Age 28
14 (-3)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26
15 (-3)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26
16 (-1)		Tomoyuki Sugano Yomiuri Age 34
17 (+1)		Ryuhei Sotani Orix Age 23
18 (-2)		Shoma Kanemura Nippon-Ham Age 23
19 (NEW)		Anderson Espinoza Orix Age 26
20 (NEW)		Carter Stewart Jr. SoftBank Age 24

Biggest Rise: Takahisa Hayakawa, Foster Griffin (+4)
Biggest Fall: Masato Morishita, Hiromi Itoh (-3)
Fell off List: CC Mercedes, Shunpeita Yamashita
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Chihiro Sumida, Anthony Kay, Andre Jackson

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Injuries: Roki Sasaki (arm fatigue) would be #1 if healthy. Kaima Taira (forearm tightness) would be top 10 if healthy.

Hiroya Miyagi: Miyagi is an ace among aces, leading all NPB starters by a significant margin in key stats like K-BB% and xFIP.

Hiroto Takahashi: Takahashi has a 0.93 ERA in 78 innings this season and has yet to allow a home run, putting up a zero in 8 of his 11 starts. He threw a Maddux on July 5 and gave the fans an encore with 11 strikeouts over 8 scoreless innings on July 12.

Shoki Murakami: A 2-run homer by Seiya Hosokawa handed Murakami the loss on Friday, but that was only his third homer allowed all year. He’s not getting as many whiffs as his ROY/MVP season, but he’s a true workhorse who can reliably work deep into games even without his best stuff.

Hiroto Saiki: Saiki has completed 7 or more innings in seven straight starts, allowing no more than one run in any of those outings, lowering his ERA to 1.12 in the process. The second half will be an important test of his stamina as he approaches a career-high in innings,

Livan Moinelo: Moinelo allowed multiple homers in a game for the first time since 2018 on Sunday, getting beat by Chusei Mannami and Franmil Reyes, nudging his ERA up to 1.69. But he’s yet to allow more than 3 runs in any start this season and has more upside than just about anyone.

Tatsuya Imai: Imai came out of the gates swinging in 2024 with an uptick in velo and newfound command, giving him some of the gaudiest whiff rates in the league. Unfortunately, the honeymoon period is seemingly ending as his walk rate is back up to 11% since the start of May. The stuff will continue to carry him but he’s far more volatile.

Atsuki Taneichi: Taneichi recorded his second double-digit strikeout performance of the season on Saturday en route to his 10th consecutive quality start. His improved fastball location has stopped it from being hit as hard and he’s even started to incorporate more knuckle curves lately,

Shosei Togo: Togo has a slight home run problem and his unsustainable LOB% means he might be due for a clunker soon but he’s been remarkably consistent so far, going 13 for 15 on quality starts.

Katsuki Azuma: Azuma is a perfect 15 for 15 on quality starts this season and had his best performance of the year on July 10, a complete game shutout. With his injury troubles seemingly behind him, he’s put up a 1.91 ERA across 282.2 innings since the start of 2023.

Takahisa Hayakawa: Hayakawa has earned the title of best breakout southpaw of the year. Despite his flyball profile, he’s keeping the ball in the park while also missing a ton of bats. He’s on a 10-straight quality start streak with no homers allowed and an excellent 75:13 K:BB ratio during that stretch.

Kojiro Yoshimura: Yoshimura’s brilliance doesn’t always show up in the box score, which is apparent with the discrepancy between his 2.35 xFIP and 3.01 ERA and his 2.33 road ERA versus 4.02 home ERA. It’s not easy pitching at Meiji Jingu, but he’s having himself a phenomenal sophomore campaign.

Ryosuke Ohtsu: Another big-time breakout star, Ohtsu continues to impress with a 2.43 ERA / 2.48 xFIP on the year. He’s top 5 in NPB in K-BB%, xFIP, and SwStr%.

Foster Griffin: Since adding a slider in early June, Griffin has completely elevated his game with five straight quality starts. He has a 0.70 ERA with 44 strikeouts in 38.2 frames during that span.

Masato Morishita: Morishita only struck out one batter over seven innings on July 9, which is always a trend to monitor as his K% has declined in each of the past four seasons. That said, his XBH prevention has still been excellent this season, and with an impeccable 3.1 BB%, he hasn’t had much traffic on the bases to worry about.

Hiromi Itoh: Itoh hasn’t exactly been consistent this season, and it’s fair to point out his lack of a true putaway pitch as a long-term concern, as the shape of his slider/sweeper hasn’t played as well as in previous seasons. That said, he limits hard contact and still has days where his swing-and-miss stuff is on display.

Tomoyuki Sugano: Sugano has allowed 3 or more runs in four of his last five starts, but his underlying numbers are still the best the veteran has looked in quite some time.

Ryuhei Sotani: Sotani has only made 18 career starts at the NPB level, but he already looks like one of the best southpaws in the country. He was a bit wild and didn’t go more than two times through the order as a rookie, but he’s being fully unleashed now with a 2.06 ERA / 2.57 xFIP.

Shoma Kanemura: Kanemura’s strikeout rate has started to fall in recent weeks, but he has a ton of pitches to work with and is one of the best in the business at getting hitters to chase outside the strike zone.

Anderson Espinoza: Espinoza sits in the mid-90s with his four-seamer, but he doesn’t fit the stereotype of a wild, max-effort pitcher at all. Instead, he relies on his sinker more than half the time and effectively generates both strikeouts and grounders.

Carter Stewart Jr.: The former #8 overall MLB pick has finally arrived. He had the best start of his NPB career on June 28 with 13 strikeouts and 20 whiffs in 7 innings. Then, he followed it up on July 12 with 10 strikeouts and 23 whiffs in 7 innings. His extreme flyball profile and poor control limit his ceiling, but he has some of the most dominant swing-and-miss stuff in NPB with a mid to high-90s fastball, buzzsaw curveball, and much-improved splitter.

Rank		Player
1 (NEW)		Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22
2 (-)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25
3 (-2)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21
4 (-)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25
5 (+1)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25
6 (-)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28
7 (-4)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23
8 (-1)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25
9 (-1)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26
10 (-)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28
11 (+1)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26
12 (-3)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26
13 (+1)		Ryosuke Ohtsu SoftBank Age 25
14 (+3)		Takahisa Hayakawa Rakuten Age 25
15 (-4)		Tomoyuki Sugano Yomiuri Age 34
16 (-3)		Shoma Kanemura Nippon-Ham Age 23
17 (NEW)		Foster Griffin Yomiuri Age 28
18 (+1)		Ryuhei Sotani Orix Age 23
19 (-3)		CC Mercedes Lotte Age 30
20 (-5)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21

Biggest Rise: Takahisa Hayakawa (+3)
Biggest Fall: Shunpeita Yamashita (-5)
Fell off List: Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Anderson Espinoza
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Luis Castillo, Anthony Kay, Chihiro Sumida

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Injuries: Roki Sasaki (arm fatigue) would be #1 if healthy. Kaima Taira (forearm tightness) would be top 10 if healthy.

Hiroya Miyagi: Miyagi was reactivated after missing seven weeks with a pec strain. In his first game back, he threw 5 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts and 11 whiffs on 85 pitches. Inning for inning, Miyagi has been the best starter in NPB this season, and it’s not particularly close.

Shoki Murakami: After a few uncharacteristically rough starts, Murakami rebounded with a dominant 8.1 innings of 1-run ball, striking out 11 without walking a single batter. Despite his 3-5 record, he’s looked pretty close to his MVP-winning form with a 2.01 ERA / 1.85 FIP on the year.

Hiroto Takahashi: Takahashi struggled to keep runs off the board against the Baystars last week, allowing 4 runners to cross the plate in 6 innings, though 2 of them were unearned. That handed him his first loss all year, but he still owns a phenomenal 0.74 ERA / 1.87 FIP in 9 starts while pitching to contact a bit more this season.

Tatsuya Imai: Imai has completed at least 7 innings in 11 of his 13 starts this season, providing immense volume alongside his incredible 26.8 K%. As the year goes on, his BB% is starting to creep up again, which has always held him back in his career, but it’s not so concerning that it takes away from his ace stuff.

Hiroto Saiki: Saiki hasn’t allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 13 starts this season, and he’s made five consecutive starts of at least 7 innings pitched with 1 run or fewer allowed. Overall, he has a 1.20 ERA / 2.06 FIP as he’s finally learned to become less fastball-reliant.

Livan Moinelo: One would expect a career reliever to struggle as the year goes on, but Moinelo just keeps getting more and more comfortable as a member of the starting rotation. He’s allowed 1 run or fewer in 10 of his 13 starts this season, including 6 shutout innings against the Fighters on Sunday.

Shosei Togo: Togo continues to be one of the biggest workhorses in Japan. He’s allowed 1.5 HR/9 in June, which has been his achilles heel in the past, but his microscopic 0.85 WHIP helps mitigate the damage.

Atsuki Taneichi: Until his last start, Taneichi had struck out 8 or more batters in six straight starts. He’s scrapped the new knuckle-curve and has succeeded in improving the sequencing and location of his slider as a third pitch. He has a 1.38 ERA since the start of May.

Kojiro Yoshimura: Yoshimura has a 1.46 ERA on the road this season. Overall, he’s posted a 2.63 ERA / 2.10 xFIP on the year. If he played in a pitcher’s park, the sophomore would be rated more fairly as one of the best up-and-coming arms in the league.

Katsuki Azuma: Azuma has the lowest fastball velocity of anyone in the top 10 at just 88.5 mph, but he’s shown an uncanny ability to limit walks and generate soft contact over the past two seasons. Since the start of 2023, he’s 23-3 with a 1.97 ERA. Of course, win-loss record isn’t in a pitcher’s control, but it’s a testament to how rarely he has clunkers.

Masato Morishita: Morishita threw a 2-hit Maddux against the Swallows last week, making his best Shohei Ohtani impression with 3 hits at the plate himself. He’s fundamentally a different pitcher from the one that won ROY in 2020, evolving into a pitch-to-contact merchant, filling up the zone with more cutters and fewer four-seamers.

Hiromi Itoh: Itoh has had trouble managing his splits against lefties this season, and a three-run homer off the bat of Kensuke Kondoh was the killer blow on Saturday against the Hawks. Though he’s had some ups and downs, he’s had a great year overall with a 2.44 ERA / 3.07 xFIP.

Ryosuke Ohtsu: While Itoh allowed 7 runs to the Hawks, Ohtsu completely shut down the Fighters through 7 scoreless innings. The 25-year-old is a major breakout player of the year candidate to this point, owning a 2.19 ERA / 2.42 xFIP, mixing speeds better than just about anyone.

Takahisa Hayakawa: It took me a little while to buy in, but the Hayakawa breakout is legit. He has career-bests across the board, most notably with a 2.22 ERA, 2.07 FIP, 2.50 xFIP, and 25.8 Whiff%. He’s still one of the biggest flyball pitchers in the league, but this is the best the former top prospect has ever looked.

Tomoyuki Sugano: Sugano has displayed great consistency throughout the season, with his monthly FIP- always ranging between 84 and 91. That’s outstanding for a veteran who looked all but washed coming into the season, but his ceiling isn’t nearly as high as some other young studs anymore.

Shoma Kanemura: Kanemura has had no problem working deep into games since moving back into the rotation in May, posting five straight quality starts. He hasn’t displayed as much ability to miss bats in recent outings, but he’s put himself in ROY conversation as Seibu’s Natsuki Takeuchi is being load-managed.

Foster Griffin: Griffin had a rough spring training and an ugly 5.59 ERA through June 8. He’s completely turned his season around since then, allowing just 1 run over 23.2 innings with a 30:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio after adding a slider to his arsenal, now his most used breaking ball. Griffin has been the best import starter in NPB since the start of 2023, with a career 2.74 ERA / 2.62 FIP.

Ryuhei Sotani: Sotani has a 2.42 ERA / 2.01 FIP with a 19.4 K-BB% in 9 starts this season. He’s allowed just one home run in 84.2 career NPB innings. Orix is being careful not to overexpose him, so the workload will likely remain limited, but the top prospect is quickly turning into one of the best southpaws in Japan.

CC Mercedes: Mercedes had somewhat of a Linsanity run to start the year, running a 1.50 ERA with a 25.3 K% through the end of May. His run prevention has been good since then, but he’s come back down to earth with a 12.7 K% in June, much closer to what he showed in 2023. Still, this is the best Mercedes has looked in his 7-year NPB career. The question is how long he can sustain it.

Shunpeita Yamashita: Back to square one with Yamashita as the command eluded him again on Sunday, leading to 9 baserunners in 3 laborsome innings on 79 pitches. What happened to the guy who threw 5 no-hit innings with 9 strikeouts just a few weeks ago? It’s still in him, no doubt. Time to play the waiting game until the 21-year-old flamethrower finds his groove again.

Rank		Player
1 (+3)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21
2 (-)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25
3 (-)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23
4 (+1)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25
5 (+2)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28
6 (-)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25
7 (+2)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25
8 (-)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26
9 (+1)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26
10 (+2)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28
11 (-)		Tomoyuki Sugano Yomiuri Age 34
12 (+1)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26
13 (+3)		Shoma Kanemura Nippon-Ham Age 23
14 (-)		Ryosuke Ohtsu SoftBank Age 25
15 (+5)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21
16 (-1)		CC Mercedes Lotte Age 30
17 (NEW)		Takahisa Hayakawa Rakuten Age 25
18 (-2)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26
19 (NEW)		Ryuhei Sotani Orix Age 23
20 (-1)		Anderson Espinoza Orix Age 26

Biggest Rise: Shunpeita Yamashita (+5)
Biggest Fall: Shinnosuke Ogasawara (-2)
Fell off List: Natsuki Takeuchi (has not pitched since May 30)
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Luis Castillo, Takayuki Katoh

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Injuries: Roki Sasaki (arm fatigue) would be #1 if healthy. Hiroya Miyagi (pec strain) and Kaima Taira (forearm tightness) would be in the top 10 if healthy.

Hiroto Takahashi: With Roki Sasaki out for an indefinite time, Takahashi claims the throne. The 21-year-old has been lights out since making his season debut in late April with a 0.56 ERA / 2.04 FIP in 7 starts. His strikeout rate is down this year but he leads all qualified starters by a large margin with a 62 GB%.

Shoki Murakami: Murakami has hit a rough patch, allowing 4 runs or more in three of his last four starts. In two of those starts, he struck out just one batter and failed to induce many whiffs. He isn’t the same pitcher that won ROY and MVP last year but there aren’t many complaints with a 2.15 FIP / 2.43 xFIP.

Shosei Togo: Togo has allowed 2 or fewer runs in six consecutive starts, tying a season-high 9 strikeouts in his most recent outing versus Nippon-Ham. He’s still prone to the long ball but the damage is mitigated thanks to a sparkling 0.80 WHIP.

Tatsuya Imai: Imai is showing that his floor is significantly higher than in years past. He has the stuff to power through starts even when his command isn’t sharp, relying on his excellent fastball and slider nearly 90% of the time. He leads all qualifiers with a 26.7 K%.

Livan Moinelo: Moinelo set a career-high in strikeouts against Hanshin last week with 12 strikeouts and 21 whiffs across 7 shutout innings. He’s had no problem working deep into games, completing at least 7 innings in seven straight starts. He has a 1.54 ERA / 2.57 xFIP.

Hiroto Saiki: Saiki flirted with a no-hitter against Seibu last week, settling for 8 innings of 1-hit ball with 9 punchouts. He has a 1.19 ERA / 2.12 FIP on the year. Then he struck out 9 batters over 7 innings of 1-run ball versus the best lineup in NPB, SoftBank.

Atsuki Taneichi: Since starting the year with a 5.27 ERA and falling to #17 on my list, Taneichi has been lights out. He’s recorded five straight starts with 7 or more strikeouts and has a 1.00 ERA in 45 innings since April 29.

Kojiro Yoshimura: Yoshimura struggled against SoftBank last week, recording a season-low 3 strikeouts. His ERA has spiked from 1.85 on May 17 to 2.95 now, but he’s still tracking as one of the most projectable arms in NPB with a 24.7 K%, 51.2 GB%, and 2.03 xFIP.

Hiromi Itoh: Itoh tossed a Maddux against Chunichi last week, efficiently utilizing his deep seven pitch mix. His K-BB% splits are night and day: 23.7% in March/April, 0.9% in May, and 22.4% so far in June. In other words, outside of May, he’s been a top 5 pitcher.

Katsuki Azuma: Azuma threw a complete game shutout against Seibu on Saturday. The southpaw eats innings with ease and has a 2.02 ERA since the start of 2023.

Tomoyuki Sugano: Sugano has allowed 3 ER in back-to-back starts after 8 straight starts of 2 ER or fewer to open the year That said, there are no underlying concerns with his velocity or stuff as he maintains a 1.83 ERA / 2.68 FIP for the year.

Masato Morishita: Morishita had his worst start of the year against a bad Seibu lineup last week, surrendering 7 hits and 5 runs in 5 innings. Even so, he has a good 41:7 K:BB on the year with a 1.82 ERA / 2.21 FIP over 59.1 IP.

Shoma Kanemura: Kanemura continues to impress with a 2.34 xFIP since moving back into the rotation in May. I had him as a major breakout candidate coming into the year so I fully buy into his results so far. He’s allowed a home run in four straight starts but has mitigated the damage to this point thanks to an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio and deep arsenal that keeps hitters on their toes.

Ryosuke Ohtsu: Ohtsu was roughed up by Yakult last week, allowing 9 hits and 7 runs in 5 innings, including a 3-run homer to Munetaka Murakami. He’s had some bad fly ball luck relative to the rest of the league as his 34.0 Chase% and 52.4 GB% should result in a better HR rate going forward.

Shunpeita Yamashita: Now that’s more like it. Yamashita made his first top team start since April 19 on Sunday, tossing 5 no-hit innings against Yakult with 9 strikeouts and 11 whiffs. He averaged 97.6 mph on the heater and regularly touched 99 in the early innings. If and when he starts locating the ball better, he has the stuff to match Roki Sasaki.

CC Mercedes: Mercedes has completed at least 5 innings in each of his 11 starts this season. His K% is coming back down to earth but he still sports an incredible 1.43 ERA / 2.39 FIP on the year.

Takahisa Hayakawa: Hayakawa had a special performance last week with 11 strikeouts in 10 shutout innings…to earn a no-decision. He had struggled for much of his career coming into 2024 but pitched for the Perth Heat in the offseason and has leveled up his game with an NPB-best 78 xFIP- among qualifiers this season. His CSW% is up from 27.6% to 31.8%. He’s a fly ball pitcher so home runs are always something to keep an eye on, but the sample size is big enough now to believe in the breakout.

Shinnosuke Ogasawara: Ogasawara allowed 10 hits, 5 runs, and 2 home runs in a brutal outing in Hokkaido last week. Leading up to the start, he had allowed just 1 homer all season.

Ryuhei Sotani: Sotani annihilated Hanshin last week with 12 strikeouts and 19 whiffs across 6 shutout innings. The 23-year-old was my top-ranked pitching prospect coming into the year and is looking like yet another successful specimen of the ‘Orix Pitching Lab’ with a 25.3 K% and 31.6 CSW% in 8 starts. Expect him to climb up the rankings very quickly.

Anderson Espinoza: Espinoza has failed to complete 6 innings on just one occasion in his debut NPB season. Overall, the Venezuelan owns a 1.98 ERA, 2.49 FIP, and 2.90 xFIP in 10 starts.

Rank		Player
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22
2 (-)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25
3 (+2)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23
4 (-)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21
5 (-2)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25
6 (+3)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25
7 (-)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28
8 (-2)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26
9 (+4)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25
10 (-2)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26
11 (-)		Tomoyuki Sugano Yomiuri Age 34
12 (-)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28
13 (+3)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26
14 (+1)		Ryosuke Ohtsu SoftBank Age 25
15 (+2)		CC Mercedes Lotte Age 30
16 (+3)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26
17 (NEW)		Shoma Kanemura Nippon-Ham Age 23
18 (+2)		Natsuki Takeuchi Seibu Age 22
19 (-1)		Anderson Espinoza Orix Age 26
20 (-10)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21

Biggest Rise: Atsuki Taneichi (+4)
Biggest Fall: Shunpeita Yamashita (-10)
Fell off List: Koki Kitayama
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Takahisa Hayakawa, Daichi Ohsera

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Injuries: Hiroya Miyagi (pec strain) and Kaima Taira (forearm tightness) would be in the top 10 if healthy.

Roki Sasaki: Roki gonna Roki. He was scratched from his last start with fatigue but has been in peak form of late, averaging over 98 mph on his heater the past two outings.

Shoki Murakami: Murakami got roughed up in his previous outing, allowing 9 hits and 5 earned runs against Hiroshima with only 1 strikeout. But he still owns a 2.03 ERA / 2.34 xFIP on the year.

Shosei Togo: Togo no-hit Hanshin on the road then followed it up with 7 innings of 1-run ball against Seibu. Those are among the weaker lineups in NPB this year but you can only beat what is in front of you and Togo went above and beyond.

Hiroto Takahashi: Takahashi has been lights-out since making his season debut on April 28. He has a 0.50 ERA / 2.46 xFIP with a 30:12 K:BB ratio across five starts, holding the opposition scoreless in three of those games.

Tatsuya Imai: After completing 7 innings in each of his first 7 starts, Imai has allowed 12 hits and 6 earned runs over his last 10 innings, including his first home run of the year. He’s still the NPB leader in strikeouts and has the best walk rate of his career.

Livan Moinelo: Moinelo has completed exactly 7 innings in each of his past 5 starts, including a career-high 9 strikeouts against Hiroshima on Friday. He has excellent splits, using his entire four pitch mix against righties while resorting to a heavy dosage of fastballs and sliders against lefties.

Hiroto Saiki: Saiki threw his NPB-leading 3rd shutout of the season Sunday at Chiba, striking out 6 with no walks. He’s been able to establish the cutter as a true reliable third pitch this season to go with the fastball and forkball, giving him more putaway options to work deep into starts.

Kojiro Yoshimura: Yoshimura had his worst start of the year against Lotte last week, allowing 11 hits, 5 runs, and 2 home runs in just 4.2 innings at rainy Jingu Stadium. But he also had 8 punchouts, raising his season strikeout rate to 24.6% with a fantastic 2.61 ERA / 1.91 xFIP.

Atsuki Taneichi: After starting the campaign with a 5.27 ERA, Taneichi has been utterly dominant with a 0.90 ERA and 29:2 K:BB ratio across his last four outings. His lack of a reliable third pitch limits him on days he doesn’t have his best stuff, but he’s quickly re-established himself as a premier power arm.

Hiromi Itoh: Itoh had a 1.41 ERA at the end of April but struggled in May with a 4.01 ERA / 4.65 FIP. He’s recorded 2 or fewer strikeouts in three of his last four starts. It was unreasonable to expect him to sustain his early season dominance but it’s equally unreasonable to expect his recent struggles to continue much longer.

Tomoyuki Sugano: Sugano tossed 7 innings of 1-run ball at Saitama on Sunday, making him 8 for 8 on quality starts this season. The 34-year-old veteran has a 1.20 ERA / 2.54 FIP, maintaining the best fastball velo of his career since 2020 while upping his cutter usage to the highest rate ever. 

Katsuki Azuma: Azuma uncharacteristically allowed 2 home runs on the road against Nippon-Ham on Friday, but his resume since the start of 2023 is remarkably consistent. A ~5% dropoff in Chase% and K-BB% is worth monitoring, though.

Masato Morishita: Morishita isn’t overpowering hitters anymore like he was a few years ago, but he’s managed a 1.36 ERA / 2.81 xFIP thus far with a career-best 3.2 BB%. He trained with former Carp Kenta Maeda in the offseason and looks more comfortable throwing up in the zone.

Ryosuke Ohtsu: In his first year as a starter, Ohtsu has a 1.38 ERA / 2.44 xFIP, utilizing a deep seven pitch mix. He has the unique ability to miss bats (21.9 K%, 24.9 Whiff%) and limit extra bases (56.9 GB%).

CC Mercedes: Mercedes continues his unexpected ascent to the top of Lotte’s rotation after being one of the worst qualified pitchers in NPB last year. He has a 1.45 ERA / 2.36 xFIP with a 50:9 K:BB ratio to this point.

Shinnosuke Ogasawara: Ogasawara has found success as a soft contact merchant this season with a 1.72 ERA / 2.13 FIP despite striking out just 36 batters in 62.2 frames. He’s executing what every great pitcher in the dead ball era should do: getting first pitch strikes and limiting walks at an elite rate.

Shoma Kanemura: Since moving into the rotation on May 8, Kanemura has a 25.0 K% and 4.3 BB% with a 2.26 xFIP, including 9 punchouts across 8 innings of 1-run ball in his last start. The rookie had excellent results in a small sample last year and is continuing to showcase both plus stuff and a deep arsenal.

Natsuki Takeuchi: Takeuchi has a 1.27 ERA / 2.94 xFIP through his first 7 NPB starts. The rookie southpaw’s changeup has been particularly nasty, accounting for 41% of his strikeouts and generating a .107 BAA.

Anderson Espinoza: Espinoza has surrendered 11 runs in 18 innings since starting his NPB career with a 0.55 ERA. Despite the recent drop in form, he still has a healthy 2.29 ERA, 2.73 xFIP, 20.8 K%, and 5.6 BB% on the year.

Shunpeita Yamashita: I have faith that Yamashita will eventually “figure it out” despite his early season control struggles but with every passing week of him not showing much progress, it becomes harder and harder to keep the 2023 Pacific League Rookie of the Year on the list. In terms of future projections, he’s special. If he finds the right balance and mechanics, he could easily re-establish himself as the best power pitcher in the league not named Roki Sasaki.

Rank		Player
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22
2 (+1)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25
3 (+1)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25
4 (+2)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21
5 (-)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23
6 (+3)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26
7 (+2)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28
8 (-)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26
9 (+3)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25
10 (+1)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21
11 (+3)		Tomoyuki Sugano Yomiuri Age 34
12 (+3)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28
13 (+4)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25
14 (-1)		Koki Kitayama Nippon-Ham Age 25
15 (NEW)		Ryosuke Ohtsu SoftBank Age 25
16 (+2)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26
17 (NEW)		CC Mercedes Lotte Age 30
18 (-)		Anderson Espinoza Orix Age 26
19 (+1)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26
20 (NEW)		Natsuki Takeuchi Seibu Age 22

Biggest Rise: Atsuki Taneichi (+4)
Biggest Fall: Kona Takahashi (Previously #16)
Fell off List: Hiroya Miyagi (Injured), Kaima Taira (Injured), Kona Takahashi
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Kengo Matsumoto, Takahisa Hayakawa

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Injuries: Hiroya Miyagi (pec strain) and Kaima Taira (forearm tightness) have been dropped from the list due to their injuries having an unspecified recovery period.

Summary: Roki Sasaki retains the top spot following a pair of polar opposite outings against the Fighters. On May 10, he had one of the worst starts of his young career, surrendering 8 hits and 5 earned runs in 5.2 innings with only 4 strikeouts. On May 17, he had one of his best starts in the past two years, punching out 12 batters across 8 innings of 1-run ball. In that game, Sasaki averaged 98.4 mph on the fastball, touched 101 mph, and recorded 10 whiffs on his forkball. What did we learn from this? Sasaki is still one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet when he decides to step on the gas pedal.

With Hiroya Miyagi out, Shoki Murakami takes the #2 spot. The reigning Central League Rookie of the Year and MVP has picked up right where he left off last season, owning a 1.30 ERA and 1.84 FIP across 48.1 frames, recording 8 or more strikeouts in four of his seven starts. Tatsuya Imai, who started the year at #20 on my list, continues to impress with a 1.47 ERA and 1.88 FIP over 49 innings with a 26.6 K%. He’s yet to allow a long ball and has completed exactly 7 innings in each of his seven starts.

Hiroto Takahashi and Shosei Togo round out the top 5. Takahashi spent the first month of the season stuck on the Dragons’ farm working out some kinks but has been lights out since returning to the top level, allowing just 2 earned runs in 3 starts. He has the best chase rate of his career at 33.9% and is averaging 95.1 mph on the four-seamer, topping at 97 mph. Togo has been on a roll to start the year, and his big flyball profile isn’t nearly as concerning with NPB’s dead balls.

Kojiro Yoshimura, Livan Moinelo, and Hiromi Itoh are ranked 6-8. Yoshimura leads all CL qualifiers in xFIP at 2.02, thanks to a filthy forkball with a 20.6 SwStr% that’s helped him generate a 19.2 K-BB% on the year. Moinelo’s starter experiment is continuing to yield excellent results, as the Cuban southpaw has failed to complete 6 innings just once so far in 2024. Itoh ran into a brick wall in early May, registering just 3 strikeouts and letting 7 runs cross the plate across two starts, but has otherwise looked like a true ace this season.

Hiroto Saiki and Shunpeita Yamashita finish off the top 10. Since the start of 2022, Saiki has a 1.74 ERA over 216.2 innings. He isn’t always as efficient as some other premier arms, but he’s finally becoming a more complete pitcher with the inclusion of a slider as a true third pitch to go alongside the four-seamer and split-finger. Yamashita is currently on the Buffaloes’ farm trying to rediscover his stellar 2023 Pacific League Rookie of the Year form. He was recently ejected for hitting a batter in the head, so finding the strike zone is still is biggest hurdle. When he does, the stuff is overpowering enough to match just about anyone.

Spots 11 through 15 belong to Tomoyuki Sugano, Katsuki Azuma, Atsuki Taneichi, Koki Kitayama, and Ryosuke Ohtsu. Taneichi makes the biggest jump this week after being the biggest faller in the previous update, as he’s thrown 15 consecutive scoreless innings. His overreliance on the fastball (which doesn’t play as well as the velocity indicates) and reluctance to integrate his new knuckle-curve will likely limit him, but he has the ability to be one of the league’s best strikeout artists. I wasn’t sure if I bought into Ohtsu’s hot start initially, as he was a middle reliever with subpar ratios in his rookie campaign, but his deep seven-pitch mix, including what appears to be a death ball, makes me very bullish on the 25-year-old going forward.

Just missing out on the top 15 are Masato Morishita, CC Mercedes, and Anderson Espinoza. Morishita has seen his strikeout rate decrease each year since debuting in 2020, but he’s only walked 3 batters all year, so he’s transforming into somewhat of a pitch-to-contact specialist. Seeing Mercedes on any kind of top 20 list is surprising, given that he was one of the worst starters in NPB last year, but he’s absolutely dominated this year with a 1.80 ERA, 2.25 xFIP, and 20.4 K-BB%, which ranks second among qualifiers only being Hiroya Miyagi. His time with Yomiuri from 2018 to 2022 indicates this level is probably not sustainable, but he’s certainly made a major leap from 2023.

A pair of southpaws in Shinnosuke Ogasawara and Natsuki Takeuchi finish off the list. The two are at very different portions in their career as Ogasawara is preparing for a potential jump to MLB while Takeuchi is still establishing himself in NPB as a rookie. Ogasawara’s 13.8 K% is the worst of his career, but he’s maintained a 0.88 WHIP thanks to a sparkling 2.1 BB% and .217 BAA. Takeuchi is running away with the PL Rookie of the Year with a 1.43 ERA and a flawless six for six on quality starts. He has a high floor with a good feel for all his secondaries.

Rank		Player
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22
2 (-)		Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22
3 (-)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25
4 (-)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25
5 (+1)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23
6 (+2)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21
7 (-)		Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24
8 (-3)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26
9 (+1)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28
10 (+5)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26
11 (-2)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21
12 (-1)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25
13 (+1)		Koki Kitayama Nippon-Ham Age 25
14 (NEW)		Tomoyuki Sugano Yomiuri Age 34
15 (-2)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28
16 (+2)		Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27
17 (-5)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25
18 (+1)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26
19 (NEW)		Anderson Espinoza Orix Age 26
20 (-)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26

Biggest Rise: Kojiro Yoshimura (+5)
Biggest Fall: Atsuki Taneichi (-5)
Fell off List: Chihiro Sumida, Kohei Azuma
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Natsuki Takeuchi, Ryosuke Ohtsu, CC Mercedes

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Summary: Not much movement inside the top 10. Roki Sasaki and Hiroya Miyagi retain the top 2 spots after an epic head-to-head duel last week, which saw Sasaki strike out 10 batters across 7 shutout frames and Miyagi punch out 13 over 8 innings of 1-run ball. Interestingly, Sasaki’s average fastball has dropped from 99-101 to 95-97, whereas Miyagi’s velocity is up from 89-91 to 92-94, but they’ve both found their groove.

Shoki Murakami, Tatsuya Imai, and Shosei Togo round out the top 5. Murakami has allowed just 3 runs over his last 31 innings. Imai has been utterly dominant, running the fastball up to the high 90s at times with a 1.29 ERA and 1.65 FIP on the year. Unless he suddenly loses his feel for the strike zone again, he’s firmly in the Sawamura Award conversation. Togo’s fastball is somewhat of an “invisa-ball” as it generates whiffs despite sitting just 90-92.

Hiroto Takahashi, Kaima Taira, and Hiromi Itoh are just outside the top 5. Takahashi was working out some kinks on the farm for most of April, so the top team sample size is minimal, but it’s clear he still has premier stuff. He struck out 11 and fell just one out shy of a complete game on Sunday night. Taira’s strikeout rate has taken a hit so far this year, but he’s getting more and more comfortable with his new gyro slider, he’s keeping runs off the board, and he’s still getting plenty of chase. Itoh has transitioned away from being a predominantly fastball-slider guy to throwing more cutters and splitters this year, and it’s working wonders.

Livan Moinelo is at #9, as his experiment as a starter has been going seamlessly thus far despite his gaudy stuff ticking down slightly. Kojiro Yoshimura joined the top 20 for the first time last week, and now he sneaks into the top 10 as he’s been the biggest breakout of the season so far, sporting a 2.18 ERA and 1.90 xFIP across 5 starts in his sophomore campaign. His fastball velo is up, his forkball has a 23.7 SwStr%, and his other secondaries are getting much better results, indicating his success is sustainable.

Spots 11 to 15 belong to Shunpeita Yamashita, Hiroto Saiki, Koki Kitayama, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Katsuki Azuma. Yamashita’s command has been all over the place this year, and he’s been sent to the farm to work on his issues, but there’s no question that the reigning Pacific League Rookie of the Year still has some of the best stuff in NPB. He’s one adjustment away from being a top 5 pitcher again. Kitayama is another guy breaking out in a huge way this year, maintaining a 1.29 ERA and 29.9 K% after 4 starts, though his 11.2 BB% is a bit concerning. Sugano looked all but “washed” coming into 2024 but is showcasing the best velocity of his career at the ripe age of 34.

Finishing off the list are Kona Takahashi, Atsuki Taneichi, Masato Morishita, Anderson Espinoza, and Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Notably, Takahashi and Ogasawara are candidates to be posted to MLB this offseason. Espinoza, a former top prospect for the Boston Red Sox, joins the top 20 with a remarkable 0.55 ERA through his first 5 NPB starts. He’s definitely due for regression, but he throws hard and gets enough grounders and strikeouts, so his success to this point isn’t entirely flukey.

Rank		Name	Notes
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22	Average velo is down from 99 to 96. A fair trade-off for more volume, assuming it’s intentional.
2 (+1)		Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22	24 IP, 1 ER, 23 K over last 3 starts. Pitches are up 2-3 mph across the board.
3 (+3)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25	Smooth sailing for the reigning CL MVP after a tough season opener.
4 (+6)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25	Keeping the walks in check for the first time in his career while boasting an average fastball of 95.3 mph.
5 (+2)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26	Better sequencing has led to a career-best Chase%, CSW%, K-BB%.
6 (+2)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23	Grinds through games and gets whiffs on his fastball despite subpar velocity. 40.3 Chase% leads NPB so far.
7 (-3)		Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24	Added a gyro slider and has been messing around with pitch mix. Diminishing returns so far but no big concerns.
8 (-3)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21	Still hasn’t pitched in NPB this season while working out some kinks on the farm.
9 (-7)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21	Good news: 95-98 on the fastball. 2900+ rpm on the curveball. Bad news: the command is all over the place and he gave up 8 ER in 4 IP.
10 (+3)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28	1.73 ERA, 2.62 xFIP across 26 IP in his first go-around as a starting pitcher.
11 (-)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25	Command is getting better. Almost 5:1 K/BB ratio over last 3 starts.
12 (-3)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25	4 starts so far: 13 IP, 1 ER in two of them. 9 IP, 10 ER in the other two.
13 (-1)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28	Not quite looking invincible like last year, but still 4 for 4 on quality starts.
14 (NEW)		Koki Kitayama Nippon-Ham Age 25	Arguably the most dominant pitcher in NPB so far this year. 1.71 ERA, 2.12 xFIP. 34.2 K% over 21 IP.
15 (NEW)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26	Sitting 92-94 mph. 2.84 ERA, 1.65 xFIP, 28.2 K% after 3 starts. The sophomore breakout is legit.
16 (-2)		Chihiro Sumida Seibu Age 24	Has been solid but the strikeout stuff isn’t jumping off the page yet.
17 (NEW)		Kohei Azuma Orix Age 24	You expect him to slow down eventually but you can’t dispute a 1.64 ERA since 2022.
18 (-)		Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27	Struggled in his season debut but looked closer to himself last start.
19 (-3)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26	Allowed 13 baserunners in 6.1 IP last outing. Advanced numbers are mostly in line with career norms.
20 (-1)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26	Whiff% is concerningly low at just 9.8%. On the bright side, he hasn’t walked anyone yet this year.

Biggest Rise: Tatsuya Imai (+6)
Biggest Fall: Shunpeita Yamashita (-7)
Fell off List: Masashi Itoh, Yudai Ohno, Takayuki Katoh
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Kodai Umetsu, Tomoyuki Sugano, Keiji Takahashi

Rank		Name	Notes
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22	Fastball is down from 99 to 96 on average but the stuff is unmatched when he’s on.
2 (-)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21	7 BB in season debut raises some concerns but stuff is still overpowering.
3 (+2)		Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22	Fastball is up 2-3 mph and breaking balls remain top-class.
4 (-1)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21	Had mechanical troubles in spring but has thrown 16 scoreless innings tuning-up on farm.
5 (-1)		Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24	Career-worst 5 BB in season debut but held opposition scoreless anyway.
6 (-)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25	Had some bad batted ball luck and lasted just 3 IP in season debut.
7 (+1)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26	13 IP, 2 ER, 16 K to open the year. Chase% and CSW% are up.
8 (-1)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23	Fastball velo and GB% are down again but still getting the job done.
9 (+1)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25	Struggled in most recent start but still missing bats. New knuckle curve yet to feature much.
10 (+10)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25	Fastball sitting 96. Slider getting whiffs. Much improved command, unafraid to attack the zone.
11 (-3)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25	Still too fastball reliant, which is also down a tick. Still hasn’t maximized his crazy potential.
12 (-1)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28	Allowed 10 hits on opening day. Excellent BB% should continue to mitigate damage.
13 (NEW)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28	8 innings in first career start followed by 6 no-hit innings in second outing. Starter experiment is going seamlessly.
14 (+2)		Chihiro Sumida Seibu Age 24	Secondary usage is way up, which makes his fastball play much better. Changeup is elite.
15 (-3)		Masashi Itoh Hanshin Age 27	Same old Itoh. Lots of soft contact, not a lot of strikeouts.
16 (-2)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26	Was scratched from his first start with right elbow tightness.
17 (+1)		Yudai Ohno Chunichi Age 35	5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K in first start back after missing most of 2023.
18 (-5)		Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27	Recorded 0 K in 6 IP in farm tune-up start. Velo drop of 3 mph is quite concerning.
19 (-2)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26	Showed slight velo increase but wasn’t getting whiffs in his first start of the year.
20 (-5)		Takayuki Katoh Nippon-Ham Age 31	Still has a minuscule BB% but GB% has slipped to 30%. Red flag because he doesn’t have the stuff to offset it.

Biggest Rise: Tatsuya Imai (+10)
Biggest Fall: Kona Takahashi, Takayuki Katoh (-5)
Fell off List: Taisuke Yamaoka (Injured)
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Koki Kitayama, Kojiro Yoshimura, Kohei Azuma