Rest of Season Starting Pitcher Rankings by Yuri Karasawa
Advanced statistics and trends are prioritized to predict future performance. Click player photo for highlights.
Update #2 (April 22, 2024)
Rank | Name | Notes | |
---|---|---|---|
1 (-) | Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22 | Average velo is down from 99 to 96. A fair trade-off for more volume, assuming it’s intentional. | |
2 (+1) | Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22 | 24 IP, 1 ER, 23 K over last 3 starts. Pitches are up 2-3 mph across the board. | |
3 (+3) | Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25 | Smooth sailing for the reigning CL MVP after a tough season opener. | |
4 (+6) | Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25 | Keeping the walks in check for the first time in his career while boasting an average fastball of 95.3 mph. | |
5 (+2) | Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26 | Better sequencing has led to a career-best Chase%, CSW%, K-BB%. | |
6 (+2) | Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23 | Grinds through games and gets whiffs on his fastball despite subpar velocity. 40.3 Chase% leads NPB so far. | |
7 (-3) | Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24 | Added a gyro slider and has been messing around with pitch mix. Diminishing returns so far but no big concerns. | |
8 (-3) | Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21 | Still hasn’t pitched in NPB this season while working out some kinks on the farm. | |
9 (-7) | Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21 | Good news: 95-98 on the fastball. 2900+ rpm on the curveball. Bad news: the command is all over the place and he gave up 8 ER in 4 IP. | |
10 (+3) | Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28 | 1.73 ERA, 2.62 xFIP across 26 IP in his first go-around as a starting pitcher. | |
11 (-) | Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25 | Command is getting better. Almost 5:1 K/BB ratio over last 3 starts. | |
12 (-3) | Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25 | 4 starts so far: 13 IP, 1 ER in two of them. 9 IP, 10 ER in the other two. | |
13 (-1) | Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28 | Not quite looking invincible like last year, but still 4 for 4 on quality starts. | |
14 (NEW) | Koki Kitayama Nippon-Ham Age 25 | Arguably the most dominant pitcher in NPB so far this year. 1.71 ERA, 2.12 xFIP. 34.2 K% over 21 IP. | |
15 (NEW) | Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26 | Sitting 92-94 mph. 2.84 ERA, 1.65 xFIP, 28.2 K% after 3 starts. The sophomore breakout is legit. | |
16 (-2) | Chihiro Sumida Seibu Age 24 | Has been solid but the strikeout stuff isn’t jumping off the page yet. | |
17 (NEW) | Kohei Azuma Orix Age 24 | You expect him to slow down eventually but you can’t dispute a 1.64 ERA since 2022. | |
18 (-) | Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27 | Struggled in his season debut but looked closer to himself last start. | |
19 (-3) | Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26 | Allowed 13 baserunners in 6.1 IP last outing. Advanced numbers are mostly in line with career norms. | |
20 (-1) | Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26 | Whiff% is concerningly low at just 9.8%. On the bright side, he hasn’t walked anyone yet this year. |
Biggest Rise: Tatsuya Imai (+6)
Biggest Fall: Shunpeita Yamashita (-7)
Fell off List: Masashi Itoh, Yudai Ohno, Takayuki Katoh
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Kodai Umetsu, Tomoyuki Sugano, Keiji Takahashi
Update #1 (April 8, 2024)
Rank | Name | Notes | |
---|---|---|---|
1 (-) | Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22 | Fastball is down from 99 to 96 on average but the stuff is unmatched when he’s on. | |
2 (-) | Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21 | 7 BB in season debut raises some concerns but stuff is still overpowering. | |
3 (+2) | Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22 | Fastball is up 2-3 mph and breaking balls remain top-class. | |
4 (-1) | Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21 | Had mechanical troubles in spring but has thrown 16 scoreless innings tuning-up on farm. | |
5 (-1) | Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24 | Career-worst 5 BB in season debut but held opposition scoreless anyway. | |
6 (-) | Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25 | Had some bad batted ball luck and lasted just 3 IP in season debut. | |
7 (+1) | Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26 | 13 IP, 2 ER, 16 K to open the year. Chase% and CSW% are up. | |
8 (-1) | Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23 | Fastball velo and GB% are down again but still getting the job done. | |
9 (+1) | Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25 | Struggled in most recent start but still missing bats. New knuckle curve yet to feature much. | |
10 (+10) | Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25 | Fastball sitting 96. Slider getting whiffs. Much improved command, unafraid to attack the zone. | |
11 (-3) | Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25 | Still too fastball reliant, which is also down a tick. Still hasn’t maximized his crazy potential. | |
12 (-1) | Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28 | Allowed 10 hits on opening day. Excellent BB% should continue to mitigate damage. | |
13 (NEW) | Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28 | 8 innings in first career start followed by 6 no-hit innings in second outing. Starter experiment is going seamlessly. | |
14 (+2) | Chihiro Sumida Seibu Age 24 | Secondary usage is way up, which makes his fastball play much better. Changeup is elite. | |
15 (-3) | Masashi Itoh Hanshin Age 27 | Same old Itoh. Lots of soft contact, not a lot of strikeouts. | |
16 (-2) | Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26 | Was scratched from his first start with right elbow tightness. | |
17 (+1) | Yudai Ohno Chunichi Age 35 | 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K in first start back after missing most of 2023. | |
18 (-5) | Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27 | Recorded 0 K in 6 IP in farm tune-up start. Velo drop of 3 mph is quite concerning. | |
19 (-2) | Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26 | Showed slight velo increase but wasn’t getting whiffs in his first start of the year. | |
20 (-5) | Takayuki Katoh Nippon-Ham Age 31 | Still has a minuscule BB% but GB% has slipped to 30%. Red flag because he doesn’t have the stuff to offset it. |
Biggest Rise: Tatsuya Imai (+10)
Biggest Fall: Kona Takahashi, Takayuki Katoh (-5)
Fell off List: Taisuke Yamaoka (Injured)
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Koki Kitayama, Kojiro Yoshimura, Kohei Azuma
Preseason (March 25, 2024)
Rank | Name | 2023 Stats | |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22 | 91.0 IP 1.78 ERA 1.32 xFIP 39.1 K% 4.9 BB% 151 PPQ+ | |
2 | Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21 | 95.0 IP 1.61 ERA 2.90 xFIP 26.4 K% 7.8 BB% 101 PPQ+ | |
3 | Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21 | 146.0 IP 2.53 ERA 3.15 xFIP 23.3 K% 8.2 BB% 117 PPQ+ | |
4 | Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24 | 150.0 IP 2.40 ERA 3.01 xFIP 25.0 K% 9.0 BB% 105 PPQ+ | |
5 | Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22 | 146.2 IP 2.27 ERA 2.97 xFIP 21.2 K% 5.4 BB% 114 PPQ+ | |
6 | Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25 | 144.1 IP 1.75 ERA 2.55 xFIP 25.8 K% 2.8 BB% 113 PPQ+ | |
7 | Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23 | 170.0 IP 2.38 ERA 3.39 xFIP 20.9 K% 5.8 BB% 100 PPQ+ | |
8 | Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25 | 118.2 IP 1.82 ERA 3.32 xFIP 22.6 K% 7.6 BB% 95 PPQ+ | |
9 | Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26 | 153.1 IP 3.46 ERA 3.11 xFIP 20.6 K% 6.3 BB% 106 PPQ+ | |
10 | Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25 | 136.2 IP 3.42 ERA 2.73 xFIP 27.5 K% 7.9 BB% 111 PPQ+ | |
11 | Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28 | 172.1 IP 1.98 ERA 2.96 xFIP 20.0 K% 2.3 BB% 107 PPQ+ | |
12 | Masashi Itoh Hanshin Age 27 | 146.2 IP 2.39 ERA 3.29 xFIP 15.9 K% 3.7 BB% 103 PPQ+ | |
13 | Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27 | 155.0 IP 2.21 ERA 3.32 xFIP 19.2 K% 7.5 BB% 101 PPQ+ | |
14 | Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26 | 131.2 IP 3.01 ERA 3.59 xFIP 17.3 K% 6.6 BB% 101 PPQ+ | |
15 | Takayuki Katoh Nippon-Ham Age 31 | 147.2 IP 2.87 ERA 3.49 xFIP 12.8 K% 2.5 BB% 91 PPQ+ | |
16 | Chihiro Sumida Seibu Age 24 | 131.0 IP 3.44 ERA 2.99 xFIP 23.1 K% 7.4 BB% 113 PPQ+ | |
17 | Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26 | 160.2 IP 3.59 ERA 3.36 xFIP 20.2 K% 6.2 BB% 99 PPQ+ | |
18 | Yudai Ohno Chunichi Age 35 | Injured | |
19 | Taisuke Yamaoka Orix Age 28 | 94.0 IP 2.30 ERA 2.83 xFIP 24.9 K% 8.5 BB% 114 PPQ+ | |
20 | Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25 | 133.0 IP 2.30 ERA 3.44 xFIP 24.4 K% 11.4 BB% 102 PPQ+ |