NPB Pitcher Rankings

Rank		Player
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22
2 (+1)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25
3 (+1)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25
4 (+2)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21
5 (-)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23
6 (+3)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26
7 (+2)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28
8 (-)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26
9 (+3)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25
10 (+1)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21
11 (+3)		Tomoyuki Sugano Yomiuri Age 34
12 (+3)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28
13 (+4)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25
14 (-1)		Koki Kitayama Nippon-Ham Age 25
15 (NEW)		Ryosuke Ohtsu SoftBank Age 25
16 (+2)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26
17 (NEW)		CC Mercedes Lotte Age 30
18 (-)		Anderson Espinoza Orix Age 26
19 (+1)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26
20 (NEW)		Natsuki Takeuchi Seibu Age 22

Biggest Rise: Atsuki Taneichi (+4)
Biggest Fall: Kona Takahashi (Previously #16)
Fell off List: Hiroya Miyagi (Injured), Kaima Taira (Injured), Kona Takahashi
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Kengo Matsumoto, Takahisa Hayakawa

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Injuries: Hiroya Miyagi (pec strain) and Kaima Taira (forearm tightness) have been dropped from the list due to their injuries having an unspecified recovery period.

Summary: Roki Sasaki retains the top spot following a pair of polar opposite outings against the Fighters. On May 10, he had one of the worst starts of his young career, surrendering 8 hits and 5 earned runs in 5.2 innings with only 4 strikeouts. On May 17, he had one of his best starts in the past two years, punching out 12 batters across 8 innings of 1-run ball. In that game, Sasaki averaged 98.4 mph on the fastball, touched 101 mph, and recorded 10 whiffs on his forkball. What did we learn from this? Sasaki is still one of the most dominant pitchers on the planet when he decides to step on the gas pedal.

With Hiroya Miyagi out, Shoki Murakami takes the #2 spot. The reigning Central League Rookie of the Year and MVP has picked up right where he left off last season, owning a 1.30 ERA and 1.84 FIP across 48.1 frames, recording 8 or more strikeouts in four of his seven starts. Tatsuya Imai, who started the year at #20 on my list, continues to impress with a 1.47 ERA and 1.88 FIP over 49 innings with a 26.6 K%. He’s yet to allow a long ball and has completed exactly 7 innings in each of his seven starts.

Hiroto Takahashi and Shosei Togo round out the top 5. Takahashi spent the first month of the season stuck on the Dragons’ farm working out some kinks but has been lights out since returning to the top level, allowing just 2 earned runs in 3 starts. He has the best chase rate of his career at 33.9% and is averaging 95.1 mph on the four-seamer, topping at 97 mph. Togo has been on a roll to start the year, and his big flyball profile isn’t nearly as concerning with NPB’s dead balls.

Kojiro Yoshimura, Livan Moinelo, and Hiromi Itoh are ranked 6-8. Yoshimura leads all CL qualifiers in xFIP at 2.02, thanks to a filthy forkball with a 20.6 SwStr% that’s helped him generate a 19.2 K-BB% on the year. Moinelo’s starter experiment is continuing to yield excellent results, as the Cuban southpaw has failed to complete 6 innings just once so far in 2024. Itoh ran into a brick wall in early May, registering just 3 strikeouts and letting 7 runs cross the plate across two starts, but has otherwise looked like a true ace this season.

Hiroto Saiki and Shunpeita Yamashita finish off the top 10. Since the start of 2022, Saiki has a 1.74 ERA over 216.2 innings. He isn’t always as efficient as some other premier arms, but he’s finally becoming a more complete pitcher with the inclusion of a slider as a true third pitch to go alongside the four-seamer and split-finger. Yamashita is currently on the Buffaloes’ farm trying to rediscover his stellar 2023 Pacific League Rookie of the Year form. He was recently ejected for hitting a batter in the head, so finding the strike zone is still is biggest hurdle. When he does, the stuff is overpowering enough to match just about anyone.

Spots 11 through 15 belong to Tomoyuki Sugano, Katsuki Azuma, Atsuki Taneichi, Koki Kitayama, and Ryosuke Ohtsu. Taneichi makes the biggest jump this week after being the biggest faller in the previous update, as he’s thrown 15 consecutive scoreless innings. His overreliance on the fastball (which doesn’t play as well as the velocity indicates) and reluctance to integrate his new knuckle-curve will likely limit him, but he has the ability to be one of the league’s best strikeout artists. I wasn’t sure if I bought into Ohtsu’s hot start initially, as he was a middle reliever with subpar ratios in his rookie campaign, but his deep seven-pitch mix, including what appears to be a death ball, makes me very bullish on the 25-year-old going forward.

Just missing out on the top 15 are Masato Morishita, CC Mercedes, and Anderson Espinoza. Morishita has seen his strikeout rate decrease each year since debuting in 2020, but he’s only walked 3 batters all year, so he’s transforming into somewhat of a pitch-to-contact specialist. Seeing Mercedes on any kind of top 20 list is surprising, given that he was one of the worst starters in NPB last year, but he’s absolutely dominated this year with a 1.80 ERA, 2.25 xFIP, and 20.4 K-BB%, which ranks second among qualifiers only being Hiroya Miyagi. His time with Yomiuri from 2018 to 2022 indicates this level is probably not sustainable, but he’s certainly made a major leap from 2023.

A pair of southpaws in Shinnosuke Ogasawara and Natsuki Takeuchi finish off the list. The two are at very different portions in their career as Ogasawara is preparing for a potential jump to MLB while Takeuchi is still establishing himself in NPB as a rookie. Ogasawara’s 13.8 K% is the worst of his career, but he’s maintained a 0.88 WHIP thanks to a sparkling 2.1 BB% and .217 BAA. Takeuchi is running away with the PL Rookie of the Year with a 1.43 ERA and a flawless six for six on quality starts. He has a high floor with a good feel for all his secondaries.

Rank		Player
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22
2 (-)		Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22
3 (-)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25
4 (-)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25
5 (+1)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23
6 (+2)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21
7 (-)		Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24
8 (-3)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26
9 (+1)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28
10 (+5)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26
11 (-2)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21
12 (-1)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25
13 (+1)		Koki Kitayama Nippon-Ham Age 25
14 (NEW)		Tomoyuki Sugano Yomiuri Age 34
15 (-2)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28
16 (+2)		Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27
17 (-5)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25
18 (+1)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26
19 (NEW)		Anderson Espinoza Orix Age 26
20 (-)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26

Biggest Rise: Kojiro Yoshimura (+5)
Biggest Fall: Atsuki Taneichi (-5)
Fell off List: Chihiro Sumida, Kohei Azuma
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Natsuki Takeuchi, Ryosuke Ohtsu, CC Mercedes

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Summary: Not much movement inside the top 10. Roki Sasaki and Hiroya Miyagi retain the top 2 spots after an epic head-to-head duel last week, which saw Sasaki strike out 10 batters across 7 shutout frames and Miyagi punch out 13 over 8 innings of 1-run ball. Interestingly, Sasaki’s average fastball has dropped from 99-101 to 95-97, whereas Miyagi’s velocity is up from 89-91 to 92-94, but they’ve both found their groove.

Shoki Murakami, Tatsuya Imai, and Shosei Togo round out the top 5. Murakami has allowed just 3 runs over his last 31 innings. Imai has been utterly dominant, running the fastball up to the high 90s at times with a 1.29 ERA and 1.65 FIP on the year. Unless he suddenly loses his feel for the strike zone again, he’s firmly in the Sawamura Award conversation. Togo’s fastball is somewhat of an “invisa-ball” as it generates whiffs despite sitting just 90-92.

Hiroto Takahashi, Kaima Taira, and Hiromi Itoh are just outside the top 5. Takahashi was working out some kinks on the farm for most of April, so the top team sample size is minimal, but it’s clear he still has premier stuff. He struck out 11 and fell just one out shy of a complete game on Sunday night. Taira’s strikeout rate has taken a hit so far this year, but he’s getting more and more comfortable with his new gyro slider, he’s keeping runs off the board, and he’s still getting plenty of chase. Itoh has transitioned away from being a predominantly fastball-slider guy to throwing more cutters and splitters this year, and it’s working wonders.

Livan Moinelo is at #9, as his experiment as a starter has been going seamlessly thus far despite his gaudy stuff ticking down slightly. Kojiro Yoshimura joined the top 20 for the first time last week, and now he sneaks into the top 10 as he’s been the biggest breakout of the season so far, sporting a 2.18 ERA and 1.90 xFIP across 5 starts in his sophomore campaign. His fastball velo is up, his forkball has a 23.7 SwStr%, and his other secondaries are getting much better results, indicating his success is sustainable.

Spots 11 to 15 belong to Shunpeita Yamashita, Hiroto Saiki, Koki Kitayama, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Katsuki Azuma. Yamashita’s command has been all over the place this year, and he’s been sent to the farm to work on his issues, but there’s no question that the reigning Pacific League Rookie of the Year still has some of the best stuff in NPB. He’s one adjustment away from being a top 5 pitcher again. Kitayama is another guy breaking out in a huge way this year, maintaining a 1.29 ERA and 29.9 K% after 4 starts, though his 11.2 BB% is a bit concerning. Sugano looked all but “washed” coming into 2024 but is showcasing the best velocity of his career at the ripe age of 34.

Finishing off the list are Kona Takahashi, Atsuki Taneichi, Masato Morishita, Anderson Espinoza, and Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Notably, Takahashi and Ogasawara are candidates to be posted to MLB this offseason. Espinoza, a former top prospect for the Boston Red Sox, joins the top 20 with a remarkable 0.55 ERA through his first 5 NPB starts. He’s definitely due for regression, but he throws hard and gets enough grounders and strikeouts, so his success to this point isn’t entirely flukey.

Rank		Name	Notes
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22	Average velo is down from 99 to 96. A fair trade-off for more volume, assuming it’s intentional.
2 (+1)		Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22	24 IP, 1 ER, 23 K over last 3 starts. Pitches are up 2-3 mph across the board.
3 (+3)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25	Smooth sailing for the reigning CL MVP after a tough season opener.
4 (+6)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25	Keeping the walks in check for the first time in his career while boasting an average fastball of 95.3 mph.
5 (+2)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26	Better sequencing has led to a career-best Chase%, CSW%, K-BB%.
6 (+2)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23	Grinds through games and gets whiffs on his fastball despite subpar velocity. 40.3 Chase% leads NPB so far.
7 (-3)		Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24	Added a gyro slider and has been messing around with pitch mix. Diminishing returns so far but no big concerns.
8 (-3)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21	Still hasn’t pitched in NPB this season while working out some kinks on the farm.
9 (-7)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21	Good news: 95-98 on the fastball. 2900+ rpm on the curveball. Bad news: the command is all over the place and he gave up 8 ER in 4 IP.
10 (+3)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28	1.73 ERA, 2.62 xFIP across 26 IP in his first go-around as a starting pitcher.
11 (-)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25	Command is getting better. Almost 5:1 K/BB ratio over last 3 starts.
12 (-3)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25	4 starts so far: 13 IP, 1 ER in two of them. 9 IP, 10 ER in the other two.
13 (-1)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28	Not quite looking invincible like last year, but still 4 for 4 on quality starts.
14 (NEW)		Koki Kitayama Nippon-Ham Age 25	Arguably the most dominant pitcher in NPB so far this year. 1.71 ERA, 2.12 xFIP. 34.2 K% over 21 IP.
15 (NEW)		Kojiro Yoshimura Yakult Age 26	Sitting 92-94 mph. 2.84 ERA, 1.65 xFIP, 28.2 K% after 3 starts. The sophomore breakout is legit.
16 (-2)		Chihiro Sumida Seibu Age 24	Has been solid but the strikeout stuff isn’t jumping off the page yet.
17 (NEW)		Kohei Azuma Orix Age 24	You expect him to slow down eventually but you can’t dispute a 1.64 ERA since 2022.
18 (-)		Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27	Struggled in his season debut but looked closer to himself last start.
19 (-3)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26	Allowed 13 baserunners in 6.1 IP last outing. Advanced numbers are mostly in line with career norms.
20 (-1)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26	Whiff% is concerningly low at just 9.8%. On the bright side, he hasn’t walked anyone yet this year.

Biggest Rise: Tatsuya Imai (+6)
Biggest Fall: Shunpeita Yamashita (-7)
Fell off List: Masashi Itoh, Yudai Ohno, Takayuki Katoh
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Kodai Umetsu, Tomoyuki Sugano, Keiji Takahashi

Rank		Name	Notes
1 (-)		Roki Sasaki Lotte Age 22	Fastball is down from 99 to 96 on average but the stuff is unmatched when he’s on.
2 (-)		Shunpeita Yamashita Orix Age 21	7 BB in season debut raises some concerns but stuff is still overpowering.
3 (+2)		Hiroya Miyagi Orix Age 22	Fastball is up 2-3 mph and breaking balls remain top-class.
4 (-1)		Hiroto Takahashi Chunichi Age 21	Had mechanical troubles in spring but has thrown 16 scoreless innings tuning-up on farm.
5 (-1)		Kaima Taira Seibu Age 24	Career-worst 5 BB in season debut but held opposition scoreless anyway.
6 (-)		Shoki Murakami Hanshin Age 25	Had some bad batted ball luck and lasted just 3 IP in season debut.
7 (+1)		Hiromi Itoh Nippon-Ham Age 26	13 IP, 2 ER, 16 K to open the year. Chase% and CSW% are up.
8 (-1)		Shosei Togo Yomiuri Age 23	Fastball velo and GB% are down again but still getting the job done.
9 (+1)		Atsuki Taneichi Lotte Age 25	Struggled in most recent start but still missing bats. New knuckle curve yet to feature much.
10 (+10)		Tatsuya Imai Seibu Age 25	Fastball sitting 96. Slider getting whiffs. Much improved command, unafraid to attack the zone.
11 (-3)		Hiroto Saiki Hanshin Age 25	Still too fastball reliant, which is also down a tick. Still hasn’t maximized his crazy potential.
12 (-1)		Katsuki Azuma DeNA Age 28	Allowed 10 hits on opening day. Excellent BB% should continue to mitigate damage.
13 (NEW)		Livan Moinelo SoftBank Age 28	8 innings in first career start followed by 6 no-hit innings in second outing. Starter experiment is going seamlessly.
14 (+2)		Chihiro Sumida Seibu Age 24	Secondary usage is way up, which makes his fastball play much better. Changeup is elite.
15 (-3)		Masashi Itoh Hanshin Age 27	Same old Itoh. Lots of soft contact, not a lot of strikeouts.
16 (-2)		Masato Morishita Hiroshima Age 26	Was scratched from his first start with right elbow tightness.
17 (+1)		Yudai Ohno Chunichi Age 35	5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K in first start back after missing most of 2023.
18 (-5)		Kona Takahashi Seibu Age 27	Recorded 0 K in 6 IP in farm tune-up start. Velo drop of 3 mph is quite concerning.
19 (-2)		Shinnosuke Ogasawara Chunichi Age 26	Showed slight velo increase but wasn’t getting whiffs in his first start of the year.
20 (-5)		Takayuki Katoh Nippon-Ham Age 31	Still has a minuscule BB% but GB% has slipped to 30%. Red flag because he doesn’t have the stuff to offset it.

Biggest Rise: Tatsuya Imai (+10)
Biggest Fall: Kona Takahashi, Takayuki Katoh (-5)
Fell off List: Taisuke Yamaoka (Injured)
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Koki Kitayama, Kojiro Yoshimura, Kohei Azuma