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NPB Pitcher Rankings

Tomoyuki Sugano is having a resurgence at the age of 34.

Rest-of-Season Starting Pitcher Rankings by Yuri Karasawa

Advanced statistics and trends are prioritized to predict future performance. Click player photo for highlights.

Update #3 (May 6, 2024)
RankPlayer
1
(-)
Roki
Sasaki


Lotte
Age 22
2
(-)
Hiroya
Miyagi


Orix
Age 22
3
(-)
Shoki
Murakami


Hanshin
Age 25
4
(-)
Tatsuya
Imai


Seibu
Age 25
5
(+1)
Shosei
Togo


Yomiuri
Age 23
6
(+2)
Hiroto
Takahashi


Chunichi
Age 21
7
(-)
Kaima
Taira


Seibu
Age 24
8
(-3)
Hiromi
Itoh


Nippon-Ham
Age 26
9
(+1)
Livan
Moinelo


SoftBank
Age 28
10
(+5)
Kojiro
Yoshimura

Yakult
Age 26
11
(-2)
Shunpeita
Yamashita


Orix
Age 21
12
(-1)
Hiroto
Saiki


Hanshin
Age 25
13
(+1)
Koki
Kitayama


Nippon-Ham
Age 25
14
(NEW)
Tomoyuki
Sugano


Yomiuri
Age 34
15
(-2)
Katsuki
Azuma


DeNA
Age 28
16
(+2)
Kona
Takahashi


Seibu
Age 27
17
(-5)
Atsuki
Taneichi


Lotte
Age 25
18
(+1)
Masato
Morishita


Hiroshima
Age 26
19
(NEW)
Anderson
Espinoza


Orix
Age 26
20
(-)
Shinnosuke
Ogasawara


Chunichi
Age 26

Biggest Rise: Kojiro Yoshimura (+5)
Biggest Fall: Atsuki Taneichi (-5)
Fell off List: Chihiro Sumida, Kohei Azuma
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Natsuki Takeuchi, Ryosuke Ohtsu, CC Mercedes

Note: Rest-of-season rankings are based on recent performance, past track record, and underlying data, similar to what is often used for fantasy sports lists. They do not necessarily reflect season-to-date results.

Summary: Not much movement inside the top 10. Roki Sasaki and Hiroya Miyagi retain the top 2 spots after an epic head-to-head duel last week, which saw Sasaki strike out 10 batters across 7 shutout frames and Miyagi punch out 13 over 8 innings of 1-run ball. Interestingly, Sasaki’s average fastball has dropped from 99-101 to 95-97, whereas Miyagi’s velocity is up from 89-91 to 92-94, but they’ve both found their groove.

Shoki Murakami, Tatsuya Imai, and Shosei Togo round out the top 5. Murakami has allowed just 3 runs over his last 31 innings. Imai has been utterly dominant, running the fastball up to the high 90s at times with a 1.29 ERA and 1.65 FIP on the year. Unless he suddenly loses his feel for the strike zone again, he’s firmly in the Sawamura Award conversation. Togo’s fastball is somewhat of an “invisa-ball” as it generates whiffs despite sitting just 90-92.

Hiroto Takahashi, Kaima Taira, and Hiromi Itoh are just outside the top 5. Takahashi was working out some kinks on the farm for most of April, so the top team sample size is minimal, but it’s clear he still has premier stuff. He struck out 11 and fell just one out shy of a complete game on Sunday night. Taira’s strikeout rate has taken a hit so far this year, but he’s getting more and more comfortable with his new gyro slider, he’s keeping runs off the board, and he’s still getting plenty of chase. Itoh has transitioned away from being a predominantly fastball-slider guy to throwing more cutters and splitters this year, and it’s working wonders.

Livan Moinelo is at #9, as his experiment as a starter has been going seamlessly thus far despite his gaudy stuff ticking down slightly. Kojiro Yoshimura joined the top 20 for the first time last week, and now he sneaks into the top 10 as he’s been the biggest breakout of the season so far, sporting a 2.18 ERA and 1.90 xFIP across 5 starts in his sophomore campaign. His fastball velo is up, his forkball has a 23.7 SwStr%, and his other secondaries are getting much better results, indicating his success is sustainable.

Spots 11 to 15 belong to Shunpeita Yamashita, Hiroto Saiki, Koki Kitayama, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Katsuki Azuma. Yamashita’s command has been all over the place this year, and he’s been sent to the farm to work on his issues, but there’s no question that the reigning Pacific League Rookie of the Year still has some of the best stuff in NPB. He’s one adjustment away from being a top 5 pitcher again. Kitayama is another guy breaking out in a huge way this year, maintaining a 1.29 ERA and 29.9 K% after 4 starts, though his 11.2 BB% is a bit concerning. Sugano looked all but “washed” coming into 2024 but is showcasing the best velocity of his career at the ripe age of 34.

Finishing off the list are Kona Takahashi, Atsuki Taneichi, Masato Morishita, Anderson Espinoza, and Shinnosuke Ogasawara. Notably, Takahashi and Ogasawara are candidates to be posted to MLB this offseason. Espinoza, a former top prospect for the Boston Red Sox, joins the top 20 with a remarkable 0.55 ERA through his first 5 NPB starts. He’s definitely due for regression, but he throws hard and gets enough grounders and strikeouts, so his success to this point isn’t entirely flukey.

Update #2 (April 22, 2024)
RankNameNotes
1
(-)
Roki
Sasaki


Lotte
Age 22
Average velo is down
from 99 to 96. A fair
trade-off for more
volume, assuming
it’s intentional.
2
(+1)
Hiroya
Miyagi


Orix
Age 22
24 IP, 1 ER, 23 K
over last 3 starts.
Pitches are up 2-3
mph across the board.
3
(+3)
Shoki
Murakami


Hanshin
Age 25
Smooth sailing for the
reigning CL MVP after
a tough season opener.
4
(+6)
Tatsuya
Imai


Seibu
Age 25
Keeping the walks
in check for the first
time in his career while
boasting an average
fastball of 95.3 mph.
5
(+2)
Hiromi
Itoh


Nippon-Ham
Age 26
Better sequencing has
led to a career-best
Chase%, CSW%, K-BB%.
6
(+2)
Shosei
Togo


Yomiuri
Age 23
Grinds through games
and gets whiffs on his
fastball despite subpar
velocity. 40.3 Chase%
leads NPB so far.
7
(-3)
Kaima
Taira


Seibu
Age 24
Added a gyro slider
and has been messing
around with pitch mix.
Diminishing returns so
far but no big concerns.
8
(-3)
Hiroto
Takahashi


Chunichi
Age 21
Still hasn’t pitched in
NPB this season while
working out some
kinks on the farm.
9
(-7)
Shunpeita
Yamashita


Orix
Age 21
Good news: 95-98 on
the fastball. 2900+
rpm on the curveball.
Bad news: the command
is all over the place and
he gave up 8 ER in 4 IP.
10
(+3)
Livan
Moinelo


SoftBank
Age 28
1.73 ERA, 2.62 xFIP
across 26 IP in his
first go-around as
a starting pitcher.
11
(-)
Hiroto
Saiki


Hanshin
Age 25
Command is getting
better. Almost 5:1
K/BB ratio over
last 3 starts.
12
(-3)
Atsuki
Taneichi


Lotte
Age 25
4 starts so far:
13 IP, 1 ER in
two of them.
9 IP, 10 ER in
the other two.
13
(-1)
Katsuki
Azuma


DeNA
Age 28
Not quite looking
invincible like last year,
but still 4 for 4 on
quality starts.
14
(NEW)
Koki
Kitayama


Nippon-Ham
Age 25
Arguably the most
dominant pitcher in
NPB so far this year.
1.71 ERA, 2.12 xFIP.
34.2 K% over 21 IP.
15
(NEW)
Kojiro
Yoshimura

Yakult
Age 26
Sitting 92-94 mph.
2.84 ERA, 1.65 xFIP,
28.2 K% after 3 starts.
The sophomore
breakout is legit.
16
(-2)
Chihiro
Sumida


Seibu
Age 24
Has been solid
but the strikeout
stuff isn’t jumping
off the page yet.
17
(NEW)
Kohei
Azuma


Orix
Age 24
You expect him to
slow down eventually
but you can’t dispute
a 1.64 ERA since 2022.
18
(-)
Kona
Takahashi


Seibu
Age 27
Struggled in his
season debut but
looked closer to
himself last start.
19
(-3)
Masato
Morishita


Hiroshima
Age 26
Allowed 13 baserunners
in 6.1 IP last outing.
Advanced numbers
are mostly in line
with career norms.
20
(-1)
Shinnosuke
Ogasawara


Chunichi
Age 26
Whiff% is concerningly
low at just 9.8%.
On the bright side,
he hasn’t walked
anyone yet this year.

Biggest Rise: Tatsuya Imai (+6)
Biggest Fall: Shunpeita Yamashita (-7)
Fell off List: Masashi Itoh, Yudai Ohno, Takayuki Katoh
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Kodai Umetsu, Tomoyuki Sugano, Keiji Takahashi

Update #1 (April 8, 2024)
RankNameNotes
1
(-)
Roki
Sasaki


Lotte
Age 22
Fastball is down
from 99 to 96 on
average but the
stuff is unmatched
when he’s on.
2
(-)
Shunpeita
Yamashita


Orix
Age 21
7 BB in season
debut raises some
concerns but stuff
is still overpowering.
3
(+2)
Hiroya
Miyagi


Orix
Age 22
Fastball is up
2-3 mph and
breaking balls
remain top-class.
4
(-1)
Hiroto
Takahashi


Chunichi
Age 21
Had mechanical
troubles in spring
but has thrown 16
scoreless innings
tuning-up on farm.
5
(-1)
Kaima
Taira


Seibu
Age 24
Career-worst 5 BB
in season debut
but held opposition
scoreless anyway.
6
(-)
Shoki
Murakami


Hanshin
Age 25
Had some bad
batted ball luck
and lasted just 3 IP
in season debut.
7
(+1)
Hiromi
Itoh


Nippon-Ham
Age 26
13 IP, 2 ER, 16 K
to open the year.
Chase% and
CSW% are up.
8
(-1)
Shosei
Togo


Yomiuri
Age 23
Fastball velo and
GB% are down again
but still getting
the job done.
9
(+1)
Atsuki
Taneichi


Lotte
Age 25
Struggled in most
recent start but
still missing bats.
New knuckle curve
yet to feature much.
10
(+10)
Tatsuya
Imai


Seibu
Age 25
Fastball sitting 96.
Slider getting whiffs.
Much improved
command, unafraid
to attack the zone.
11
(-3)
Hiroto
Saiki


Hanshin
Age 25
Still too fastball
reliant, which is
also down a tick.
Still hasn’t maximized
his crazy potential.
12
(-1)
Katsuki
Azuma


DeNA
Age 28
Allowed 10 hits
on opening day.
Excellent BB%
should continue to
mitigate damage.
13
(NEW)
Livan
Moinelo


SoftBank
Age 28
8 innings in first
career start followed
by 6 no-hit innings
in second outing.
Starter experiment
is going seamlessly.
14
(+2)
Chihiro
Sumida


Seibu
Age 24
Secondary usage
is way up, which
makes his fastball
play much better.
Changeup is elite.
15
(-3)
Masashi
Itoh


Hanshin
Age 27
Same old Itoh.
Lots of soft
contact, not a
lot of strikeouts.
16
(-2)
Masato
Morishita


Hiroshima
Age 26
Was scratched
from his first start
with right elbow
tightness.
17
(+1)
Yudai
Ohno


Chunichi
Age 35
5 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
in first start back
after missing
most of 2023.
18
(-5)
Kona
Takahashi


Seibu
Age 27
Recorded 0 K
in 6 IP in farm
tune-up start.
Velo drop of 3 mph
is quite concerning.
19
(-2)
Shinnosuke
Ogasawara


Chunichi
Age 26
Showed slight velo
increase but wasn’t
getting whiffs in his
first start of the year.
20
(-5)
Takayuki
Katoh


Nippon-Ham
Age 31
Still has a minuscule
BB% but GB% has
slipped to 30%. Red flag
because he doesn’t have
the stuff to offset it.

Biggest Rise: Tatsuya Imai (+10)
Biggest Fall: Kona Takahashi, Takayuki Katoh (-5)
Fell off List: Taisuke Yamaoka (Injured)
Risers Outside Top 20 to Watch: Koki Kitayama, Kojiro Yoshimura, Kohei Azuma

Preseason (March 25, 2024)
RankName2023 Stats
1Roki
Sasaki


Lotte
Age 22
91.0 IP
1.78 ERA
1.32 xFIP
39.1 K%
4.9 BB%
151 PPQ+
2Shunpeita
Yamashita


Orix
Age 21
95.0 IP
1.61 ERA
2.90 xFIP
26.4 K%
7.8 BB%
101 PPQ+
3Hiroto
Takahashi


Chunichi
Age 21
146.0 IP
2.53 ERA
3.15 xFIP
23.3 K%
8.2 BB%
117 PPQ+
4Kaima
Taira


Seibu
Age 24
150.0 IP
2.40 ERA
3.01 xFIP
25.0 K%
9.0 BB%
105 PPQ+
5Hiroya
Miyagi


Orix
Age 22
146.2 IP
2.27 ERA
2.97 xFIP
21.2 K%
5.4 BB%
114 PPQ+
6Shoki
Murakami


Hanshin
Age 25
144.1 IP
1.75 ERA
2.55 xFIP
25.8 K%
2.8 BB%
113 PPQ+
7Shosei
Togo


Yomiuri
Age 23
170.0 IP
2.38 ERA
3.39 xFIP
20.9 K%
5.8 BB%
100 PPQ+
8Hiroto
Saiki


Hanshin
Age 25
118.2 IP
1.82 ERA
3.32 xFIP
22.6 K%
7.6 BB%
95 PPQ+
9Hiromi
Itoh


Nippon-Ham
Age 26
153.1 IP
3.46 ERA
3.11 xFIP
20.6 K%
6.3 BB%
106 PPQ+
10Atsuki
Taneichi


Lotte
Age 25
136.2 IP
3.42 ERA
2.73 xFIP
27.5 K%
7.9 BB%
111 PPQ+
11Katsuki
Azuma


DeNA
Age 28
172.1 IP
1.98 ERA
2.96 xFIP
20.0 K%
2.3 BB%
107 PPQ+
12Masashi
Itoh


Hanshin
Age 27
146.2 IP
2.39 ERA
3.29 xFIP
15.9 K%
3.7 BB%
103 PPQ+
13Kona
Takahashi


Seibu
Age 27
155.0 IP
2.21 ERA
3.32 xFIP
19.2 K%
7.5 BB%
101 PPQ+
14Masato
Morishita


Hiroshima
Age 26
131.2 IP
3.01 ERA
3.59 xFIP
17.3 K%
6.6 BB%
101 PPQ+
15Takayuki
Katoh


Nippon-Ham
Age 31
147.2 IP
2.87 ERA
3.49 xFIP
12.8 K%
2.5 BB%
91 PPQ+
16Chihiro
Sumida


Seibu
Age 24
131.0 IP
3.44 ERA
2.99 xFIP
23.1 K%
7.4 BB%
113 PPQ+
17Shinnosuke
Ogasawara


Chunichi
Age 26
160.2 IP
3.59 ERA
3.36 xFIP
20.2 K%
6.2 BB%
99 PPQ+
18Yudai
Ohno


Chunichi
Age 35
Injured
19Taisuke
Yamaoka


Orix
Age 28
94.0 IP
2.30 ERA
2.83 xFIP
24.9 K%
8.5 BB%
114 PPQ+
20Tatsuya
Imai


Seibu
Age 25
133.0 IP
2.30 ERA
3.44 xFIP
24.4 K%
11.4 BB%
102 PPQ+
Note: PPQ+ is Pitching Process Quality+, a custom stat combining CSW%, K-BB%, and GB% into one number (100 = League Average)